Over a billion people of India, living inside and outside, rural and urban, Hindu, Muslim, Christian, Parsi, and others, are waiting for the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Many factors will play crucial roles in this election outcome: from the aspirations of 18.5 million first-time voters aged 18-19 with a substantial portion of the electorate under 30, to diminishing Modi factor, to disillusionment of the people on employment and ache din front. Young voters were instrumental in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) victories in 2014 and 2019. Campaigns and manifestos are increasingly tailored to address the concerns and aspirations of this dynamic group; this will continue to be in the BJP way. But the INDIA bloc and other regional parties opposing the BJP/NDA bloc have managed to gain a lot of ground in penetrating and reaching to the masses and talking to them about the dangers of an extreme right winged government backed by corporate giants. The concerned civil society has majorly moved away from the BJP/NDA side. Civil society in India hugely value the ideals of secularism, democracy, and the constitution. With democracy and secularism in danger, political parties advocating policies, opportunities and benefits to favour a religious majority and conveniently excluding certain communities, blatant hate speech and then blatant denial of it, reinforcement of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), etc. have further damaged the image of the ruling establishment, and the trust common people had on them.

The Lok Sabha Election of 2024 in India showcased several noteworthy trends that would shape the political outcome of the elections:

Digital Campaigning Dominance: The influence of digital campaigning continued to rise, with political parties leveraging social media platforms, targeted advertising, and data analytics to reach voters.

Regional Parties' Resurgence:
Regional parties play a pivotal role in several states, emphasizing regional issues and forming strategic alliances with national parties. These parties capitalize on their strong grassroots networks and deep understanding of local dynamics to secure significant electoral gains.

Focus on Development:
putting aside religion and ideologies, the electorate exhibit a continued emphasis on development-oriented agendas, including infrastructure, employment generation, healthcare, and education. Parties that present credible and innovative development plans garner significant support from voters, especially in rural and semi-urban areas.

Identity Politics and Social Issues:
Identity-based politics remain a significant factor, with parties appealing to caste, religious, and linguistic identities to mobilize support. Additionally, social issues such as gender equality, environmental conservation, and minority rights gain prominence, influencing voter preferences and candidate selection.

Evolving Coalition Dynamics:

Coalition politics remain integral to the Indian electoral landscape, with pre-poll and post-poll alliances determining government formation. The fluidity of coalition dynamics underscore the importance of strategic partnerships and consensus-building in a diverse and multi-party democracy like India.

Corruption:
Disclosure of major scams like, Electoral bonds, will definitely have an effect on the way informed voters cast their vote.

Technological Innovations in Voting:
The adoption of technological innovations to streamline the voting process, including electronic voting machines (EVMs), and online registration facilities, which are aimed to enhance transparency, efficiency, and accessibility in the electoral process, may make it easy for the powerful to misuse it and manipulate it to their advantage.

An analysis of seven states that come among the 10 biggest states (having the most number of constituencies) indicate a decline of the unquestioned continuity of reign of the BJP/NDA bloc. With the over-dependency on temple politics and hindutva ideology, people have lost faith in them and have stopped believing that they would bring about progress and employment in the modern sense of the term. Their outward image as a party with less corruption is broken with the surfacing of electoral bonds scam. NDA has poorly managed the Manipur unrest, farmer’s protest, and attacks on minorities and institutions. After the initial phases of voting the BJP side look doubtful of their own victory, and are going desperate.

What has worked positively for the congress-led INDIA bloc is that they have stood together as an opposition force, though some have moved away and are contesting independently; programmes like Bharat Jodo Yatras by Rahul Gandhi have projected congress as a party that knows the needs and aspirations of the common folks, and Rahul has emerged as a competent leader; congress has won elections in recent major

state elections, like, Karnataka and Telangana; and congress’ and its allies’ image as a side that upholds the constitution and its democratic and secular values. On 4 June when the Lok Sabha election boxes (EVMs) are unboxed, who will have the last laugh? If the above discussed seven states, having 303 seats of 543, are of any indication, the NDA/BJP have a slight edge. BJP with their alliances could win in around 300 seats.

But there are other extraneous factors, like the small states and minorities with big problems of exclusion, less attention given to them, and being at the verge of losing their identity and position often because of the generic BJP stance, ‘one nation, one vote, one language, one religion, etc.” BJP has failed to deliver in many important fronts like, employment, price fluctuation, and human rights. The clean image of BJP is broken with the electoral bonds’ scam. The Modi wave factor is diminishing. Many regional small parties have resurged and taken their position against BJP.

And, after 10 years of BJP rule, with the anti-incumbency factor, many look forward to a change. Yes. The changing political and social landscape of India could reduce NDA below 250; and BJP below 200. The country awaits the greatest election results on the planet -a result that is capable of changing the nature and destiny of a nation of over 1.2 billion people.

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